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Value Gold ETF

  • Value Gold ETF (the “Fund”) is a fund listed on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited (“SEHK”), which aims to provide investment results that closely correspond to the performance of the London Bullion Market Association Gold Price.
  • The Fund only invests in bullion and may experience greater volatility due to single economic, market or political occurrences.
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  • 通脹未見頂金價現水平有支持 (Chinese only)

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通脹未見頂金價現水平有支持 (Chinese only)

美國於三月份開始進入加息周期,聯儲局主席鮑威爾上周更表示,下月或加息半厘以抑制通脹。隨著緊縮步伐加快,美債孳息率及美元持續走強,但對金價的打擊相當輕微,截至上周五(22日),紐約期金今年以來累漲逾5.5%。鑑於歐洲地緣政治緊張局勢加劇,通脹仍未降溫,避險情緒持續高漲下,料繼續利好金價表現。

大宗商品價格持續急升,美國三月份消費者物價指數(CPI)按年上漲8.5%,創41年以來新高。通脹失控,聯儲局接連有官員發表鷹派言論,聖路易斯聯儲銀行行長布拉德於本月初表明,美國年內需加息三厘以上;鮑威爾則指出,控制高通脹非常重要,加息半厘將會是下月議息會議的選項之一。

據世界黃金協會於4月6日的一篇分析指, 高通脹及加息預期的結合下,令美國國債孳息曲線越趨平坦,最終令美國兩年及十年期國債孳息曲線在3月底出現倒掛。孳息曲線倒掛,通常被認為是即將到來的衰退信號,刺激資金流入黃金避險,金價表現明顯跑贏其他風險資產。該協會又指,三個月及十年期孳息曲線趨平,金價往往表現出色。曲線趨平期間,黃金的年回報率超過5%,而曲線變陡時則略低於3%。

A股受壓提振黃金需求

中國疫情反彈,部分城市實施封城隔離,世界黃金協會於本月中指出,相關地區的出行限制,可能會短期抑制第二季度當地的黃金消費。數據顯示,3月份從上海黃金交易所提取的黃金總量為104噸,同比下降38%。雖然疫情防控措施暫時削弱實物黃金需求,但隨著滬深兩市持續受壓,今年首季分別蒸發10.6%及18.4%,本地投資者對黃金相關資產的需求明顯上升,抵銷實物黃金消費下跌的影響。3月份中國黃金ETF的總持倉量增至61.8噸(約39 億美元,245 億元人民幣),較2月底增加2.4噸(約1.5億美元或9.53億人民幣)。

外圍方面,除美國通脹持續高企外,歐元區三月份CPI及生產者物價指數(PPI)亦分別按年上升7.5%及31.4%,市場對歐洲央行加息的預期亦逐漸升溫。儘管全球主要央行正加快緊縮步伐,但通脹數據公佈後,金價表現仍反覆向好,反映市場認為通脹仍未見頂,為金價帶來有力的支撐。隨著俄烏談判再以失敗告終,俄軍隨即展開第二階段攻勢攻打烏克蘭東部的頓巴斯地區,烏克蘭總統澤連斯基強硬回應頓巴斯之戰已開始,並誓言烏軍力保每一寸國土與俄軍力戰到底,反映俄烏局勢正不斷惡化,只會進一步推高大宗商品價格,令通脹居高不下。另一方面,芬蘭及瑞典很大機會即將加入北約,加劇歐洲地緣政治緊張局勢,估計資金仍會繼續流入金市或黃金ETF避險,金價在現水平得到支持。

 

本文提供之意見純屬盛寶資產管理香港有限公司之觀點,會因市場及其他情況而改變。以上資料並不構成任何投資建議,亦不應視作投資決策之依據。所有資料是搜集自被認為是可靠的來源,但惠理不保證資料的準確性。本文包含之部分陳述可能被視為前瞻性陳述,此等陳述不保證任何將來表現,實際情況或發展可能與該等陳述有重大落差。刊發人:盛寶資產管理香港有限公司

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