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Value Gold ETF

  • Value Gold ETF (the “Fund”) is a fund listed on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited (“SEHK”), which aims to provide investment results that closely correspond to the performance of the London Bullion Market Association Gold Price.
  • The Fund only invests in bullion and may experience greater volatility due to single economic, market or political occurrences.
  • The Fund has adopted a multi counter and units are traded in HKD, RMB and USD on SEHK. The nature of the multi-counter model may make investment in the units riskier than in single counter units or shares of an SEHK listed issuer. Investors without RMB or USD accounts may buy and sell HKD traded units only.
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  • The Fund does not insure its bullion and the Fund and unitholders could suffer a loss if the bullion held by the custodian is lost or damaged.
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  • 許喬達: 經濟風險升溫 金價有條件續反彈 (Chinese only)

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許喬達: 經濟風險升溫 金價有條件續反彈 (Chinese only)

美國接連公布的多項經濟數據不及預期,衰退風險仍揮之不去,市場預期聯儲局將減慢加息步伐,美元及美債息持續回落。同時,中國最新的經濟數據亦疲弱不振,房地產市場又持續低迷,新冠疫情復燃下,為經濟復甦帶來不少挑戰。隨着全球兩大經濟體的增長動力不如市場樂觀看法,地緣政治局勢再度緊張,資金有重返黃金的跡象。此外,央行不斷增持黃金,預期金價仍有條件繼續展開反彈。

世界黃金協會於上月公布,隨着金價於第二季下跌,黃金季內需求按年下跌8%至948噸,但上半年則按年增長12%至2189噸。黃金ETF於第二季流出39噸,上半年的淨流入總量達234噸,去年同期則淨流出約127噸。聯儲局持續收緊貨幣政策令美元維持強勢,美滙指數於第二季大漲6.5%,此因素顯著削弱黃金需求。然而,眼下多項美國經濟數據表現遜色,預期會促使聯儲局減慢緊縮政策的步伐,美元已見頂的機會不低。

美經濟收縮債息下跌

據美國商務部公布,美國第二季國內生產總值(GDP)按年收縮0.9%,遠遜預期的增長0.4%,並已連續兩個季度錄得跌幅。其他數據亦反映美國經濟活動正進一步減弱,美國7月製造業PMI錄得52.2,為2020年8月以來新低,但勝預期的52;服務業PMI初值為47,創2020年6月以來新低,並遠低於預期的52.6。

多項數據出台後,美國10年期國債孳息持續向下,昨日更跌至低見2.52厘,為今年4月份以來最低,反映市場相信經濟基本面正不斷惡化,資金重新流入債券,並預期聯儲局將會減慢加息步伐。美國銀行於本周一(1日)的客戶報告預測,在經濟顯著放緩下,孳息在未來6至12個月內有可能達到2厘。事實上,黃金作為無孳息的資產,當國債孳息下跌時,往往對金價表現有利。

新興國家央行增持黃金

值得留意的是,中國的經濟數據亦不容樂觀,第二季GDP按季收縮2.6%,遜預期的跌1.5%,按年升幅僅0.4%,同樣較預期的1%低;7月份製造業PMI再度跌穿榮枯線,數值為49,低於預期的50.4。鑑於兩大經濟體的經濟前景不穩,俄烏及兩岸局勢又再次緊張,股票等傳統風險資產於短期內或會相對波動,相信黃金能繼續發揮其避險特性。

除此之外,地緣政治紛爭持續引發歐美國家出台一系列制裁,部分國家憂慮持有美元或歐羅資產的風險將顯著增加,加上高通脹,央行對黃金需求自今年以來明顯上升。據世界黃金協會指出,環球央行於第二季增持近180噸黃金,按季急增一倍,但按年減少14%。事實上,目前部分新興國家普遍錄得雙位數的通脹,在長期保值、對抗通脹及儲備多元化的因素推動下,新興國家央行將持續增加黃金儲備,繼而支持金價表現。

本文提供之意見純屬盛寶資產管理香港有限公司之觀點,會因市場及其他情況而改變。以上資料並不構成任何投資建議,亦不應視作投資決策之依據。所有資料是搜集自被認為是可靠的來源,但惠理不保證資料的準確性。本文包含之部分陳述可能被視為前瞻性陳述,此等陳述不保證任何將來表現,實際情況或發展可能與該等陳述有重大落差。刊發人:盛寶資產管理香港有限公司

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