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Value Gold ETF

  • Value Gold ETF (the “Fund”) is a fund listed on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited (“SEHK”), which aims to provide investment results that closely correspond to the performance of the London Bullion Market Association Gold Price.
  • The Fund only invests in bullion and may experience greater volatility due to single economic, market or political occurrences.
  • The Fund has adopted a multi counter and units are traded in HKD, RMB and USD on SEHK. The nature of the multi-counter model may make investment in the units riskier than in single counter units or shares of an SEHK listed issuer. Investors without RMB or USD accounts may buy and sell HKD traded units only.
  • RMB is not a freely convertible currency and is subject to foreign exchange control policies, as well as repatriation restrictions imposed by the PRC government. Investors whose base currencies of investments are not in RMB should take into account the potential risk of loss arising from fluctuations in value between such currencies and the RMB.
  • The Fund does not insure its bullion and the Fund and unitholders could suffer a loss if the bullion held by the custodian is lost or damaged.
  • As the Fund is not actively managed, the Manager will not adopt a temporary defensive position against any market downturn. Investors may lose part or all of their investment.
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經濟浮現衰退壓力,黃金望再發揮避險功能 (Chinese only)

美國聯儲局於上周三(15日)的議息會議上一如預期以進取姿態加息0.75厘,雖然主席鮑威爾其後發表鴿派言論,表示加息0.75厘不會成為常態,但隨著息口持續上升的同時,未能有效控制通脹,美國五月份零售銷售更出乎意料按月減少0.3%,市場對經濟衰退的擔憂持續升溫,拖累風險資產表現不斷受壓。鑑於金價已弱勢多時,資金或會趁勢重新回流,有利黃金於短期內發揮避險功能。

聯儲局年內第三次加息再度為金融市場掀起波瀾,截至本周四(16日)本月以來,美股三大指數累計跌幅介乎9.28至11.88%;有「數碼黃金」之稱的比特幣則重挫三成半。在加息預期升溫下,美匯指數本月以來漲1.85%,金價卻未有受美元強勢影響,仍能升逾1%,或反映環球股市大幅波動下,資金開始湧入黃金避險。

ETF變動與金價具正面關連

法興最新發布的研究報告指出,黃金仍然是投資者最主要的長期避險工具,即使聯儲局今年持續加息,但因加息力度無法追上通脹,而扣除通脹後的實際利率仍然是負數,金價仍有望突破2000美元。此外,俄烏衝突持續為市場帶來不確定性,股市大幅波動,黃金於短期內可發揮避險及抗通脹的作用。

據世界黃金協會於今月初發表的報告指,雖然全球黃金ETF於今年五月份的持倉減少53.2噸,結束連續四個月淨流入的趨勢,但今年首五個月計,全球黃金ETF總持倉量則錄得8%或262.4噸的增長至3823噸。事實上,黃金ETF的需求與金價走勢存在正向關係,以五月份為例,金價下滑超過3%,但首五個月窄幅漲0.45%,截至上周五(17日)今年以來漲逾1%。

美國垃圾債違約率持續攀升

值得留意的是,美國十年期國債孳息率由年初低位約1.529厘持續攀升,上周二(14日)更高見3.498厘。隨著美債息因貨幣緊縮政策而居高不下,除持續加重企業成本外,反映未來企業違約風險預期的信貸利差開始出現擴張趨勢。雖然現時美國CCC級(垃圾級)債券信貸利差約10.6%,仍遠低2008年金融海嘯及2020年新冠肺情爆發初期的水平,但創2020年11月以來最高,並由去年底開始不斷攀升。該指標為市場上的重要風險指數,代表違約率正在上升,經濟漸漸浮現衰退壓力。

其他數據亦反映美國經濟正搖搖欲墜,包括五月份新屋動工數目大幅下滑、六月份紐約製造業指數連續兩個月收縮,以及零售銷售倒退等。經濟增長持續受到負面影響,風險資產今年以來重挫不少,黃金相對風險資產的波動性較低,考慮到市場信心疲弱,預期投資者會積極加大防禦布局,金價應可重拾上漲動力。

 

本文提供之意見純屬盛寶資產管理香港有限公司之觀點,會因市場及其他情況而改變。以上資料並不構成任何投資建議,亦不應視作投資決策之依據。所有資料是搜集自被認為是可靠的來源,但惠理不保證資料的準確性。本文包含之部分陳述可能被視為前瞻性陳述,此等陳述不保證任何將來表現,實際情況或發展可能與該等陳述有重大落差。刊發人:盛寶資產管理香港有限公司

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