Value ETF - 滯脹威脅逼近或利好黃金表現(Chinese only)

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Value Gold ETF

Value Gold ETF (the “Fund”) is a fund listed on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited (“SEHK”), which aims to provide investment results that closely correspond to the performance of the London Bullion Market Association Gold Price.
The Fund only invests in bullion and may experience greater volatility due to single economic, market or political occurrences.
The Fund has adopted a multi counter and units are traded in HKD, RMB and USD on SEHK. The nature of the multi-counter model may make investment in the units riskier than in single counter units or shares of an SEHK listed issuer. Investors without RMB or USD accounts may buy and sell HKD traded units only.
RMB is not a freely convertible currency and is subject to foreign exchange control policies, as well as repatriation restrictions imposed by the PRC government. Investors whose base currencies of investments are not in RMB should take into account the potential risk of loss arising from fluctuations in value between such currencies and the RMB.
The Fund does not insure its bullion and the Fund and unitholders could suffer a loss if the bullion held by the custodian is lost or damaged.
As the Fund is not actively managed, the Manager will not adopt a temporary defensive position against any market downturn. Investors may lose part or all of their investment.
Trading prices of units on the SEHK are subject to market forces and the units may trade at a substantial premium/discount to the net asset value of the Fund.
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Email: operations@valueETF.com.hk

滯脹威脅逼近或利好黃金表現(Chinese only)

通脹居高不下令美國的貨幣政策回歸正常化，美元及美債孳息率一路上揚，大大遏制金價表現。然而，隨著歐美陷入滯脹的機率增加，俄烏緊張局勢又持續升溫，風險資產的波幅將較以往來得更大。金價波幅向來較股市低，相信黃金仍能發揮其避險功能，多隻在岸黃金ETF更於第二季獲大型避險基金增持，反映黃金在多元資產策略中仍是相當重要的一部分。

年內料再加息1.25厘

踏入加息周期，美元強勢及孳息上升不利金價表現，但相對其他風險資產，金價今年以來只下跌約9.6%，標普500指數則急挫22.5%¹，黃金表現跑贏不少。事實上，聯儲局今年以來已連續五次加息，聯邦基金利率區間達到3至3.25厘的水平。局方在上周的議息會議後更發表鷹派言論，揚言會繼續加息直至通脹回落至2%的目標。據最新的點陣圖預測中值顯示，到 2022 年底聯邦基金利率為 4.4%，而2023 年為 4.6%，意味著 11 月的議息會議將再次加息 75 個基點，然後在 12 月加息 50 個基點²。

隨著利率上揚，借貸成本將同時上升，從而壓抑消費，並增加企業及政府的債務壓力，可見宏觀經濟步入衰退的風險正不斷上升，有望為金價帶來支持。聯儲局此前大幅下調今年經濟增長預測至僅0.2%，遠低於之前預測的1.7%，2023及2024年的經濟增長預測亦分別調低至1.2及1.7%^３，反映局方已就加息所帶來的經濟衰退作好準備。此外，市場已逐步消化聯儲局加快加息的消息；再者，2023年最終利率目標僅4.6%，明年加息步伐將明顯放慢，有利金價反彈。

全球四分三國家遭削經濟預測

歐洲央行同樣在九月份加息0.75厘，為歷史上首次，行長拉加德亦發表鷹派言論，為打壓通脹未來可能再次實施同樣幅度的加息，並預料明年二月利率水平會達到2.25%^４。隨著歐美央行正以最激進的加息步伐抗衡通脹，陷入滯脹的機率亦大大提高，世界銀行首席經濟學家Indermit Gill於九月中警告，全球經濟或將出現「普遍性滯脹」，並同時調低全球四分之三國家或地區的經濟預測^５。

雖然不少商品價格已由俄烏衝突初期的高位回落，通脹按年漲幅可能在未來幾個季度回軟，但隨著俄羅斯積極擴大軍隊規模，市場普遍預計兩國的軍事衝突將會進一步升級，更不排除俄國動用核武的可能性，縱使環球市場對商品的需求有所減弱，惟地緣政治持續緊張。此消彼長下，預期商品價格將繼續在高位徘徊，全球可能會面臨更頻繁的周期性通脹壓力，環球市場難逃滯脹的威脅。

值得留意的是，全球最大避險基金集團橋水(Bridgewater)，據報於今年第二季大舉增持三隻中國在岸黃金ETF，合共持有2.14億股，截至昨日收市，其市值超過8億元人民幣^６。事實上，該三隻ETF今年以來平均累漲約3%，滬深300指數則挫逾兩成二¹，前者明顯跑贏大市，反映黃金ETF在波動市況下可提供一定的防守力。隨著滯脹風險不斷升溫，投資者不妨考慮配置相關ETF以作對沖。

資料來源：

彭博，2022年9月26日
美國聯儲局，2022年9月22日
美國聯儲局，2022年9月21日
歐洲央行，2022年9月8日
世界銀行，2022年9月16日
英國金融時報，2022年9月15日

免責聲明：本文提供之觀點純屬惠理基金管理香港有限公司（「惠理」）觀點，會因市場及其他情況而改變。以上資料並不構成任何投資建議，亦不可視作倚賴之依據。所有數據是於呈示之日搜集自被認為是可靠的數據源，但惠理不保證數據的準確性。本文包含之部分陳述可能被視為前瞻性陳述，此前瞻性陳述不保證任何將來表現，實際情況或發展可能與該等前瞻性陳述有重大落差。本文件並未經香港證券及期貨事務監察委員會審閱。刊發人：惠理基金管理香港有限公司。

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