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Value Gold ETF

  • Value Gold ETF (the “Fund”) is a fund listed on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited (“SEHK”), which aims to provide investment results that closely correspond to the performance of the London Bullion Market Association Gold Price.
  • The Fund only invests in bullion and may experience greater volatility due to single economic, market or political occurrences.
  • The Fund has adopted a multi counter and units are traded in HKD, RMB and USD on SEHK. The nature of the multi-counter model may make investment in the units riskier than in single counter units or shares of an SEHK listed issuer. Investors without RMB or USD accounts may buy and sell HKD traded units only.
  • RMB is not a freely convertible currency and is subject to foreign exchange control policies, as well as repatriation restrictions imposed by the PRC government. Investors whose base currencies of investments are not in RMB should take into account the potential risk of loss arising from fluctuations in value between such currencies and the RMB.
  • The Fund does not insure its bullion and the Fund and unitholders could suffer a loss if the bullion held by the custodian is lost or damaged.
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  • 滯漲憂慮未除 黃金繼續受資金青睞 (Chinese only)

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滯漲憂慮未除 黃金繼續受資金青睞 (Chinese only)

俄烏局勢陷入僵局,全球經濟衰退風險正明顯升溫,通脹壓力又同時增加,部分央行加快進入加息周期,或可能導致衰退提早出現,持續為金融市場帶來困擾。同時,市場對滯漲的憂慮揮之不去,避險情緒仍然高漲,加上俄羅斯國內的黃金需求持續強勁,對短期金價有著極大支撐作用。

東歐戰事已持續超過一個月,烏克蘭多個城市接連受到俄軍空襲,著名瑞士鑄金商龐博集團(MKS PAMP Group)金屬策略主管謝爾斯(Nicky Shiels)發表最新報告指,俄烏戰爭將使全球地緣政治局勢出現巨大變化,預期俄烏局勢年內難以完全解決,全球經濟衰退的風險正逐步增加,使金價今年的走勢將完全不同於該行早前所估計。另一方面,該報告更認為,各國央行為了應對油價上漲所帶來的通脹壓力而持續加息,恐怕會令經濟衰退更早出現。

俄烏戰事引發西方國家實施一系列制裁,並將俄國踢出國際金融體系,在海外的外匯儲備遭到凍結,導致俄羅斯盧布暴挫。俄國央行其後更出台新措施限制俄國民眾兌換外幣,以及禁止資金外流,促使當地對黃金的需求急升。俄央行於今月中宣布,為滿足國內家庭的黃金需求,央行已暫停從銀行購入黃金,並取消對購買貴金屬所徵收的20%增值稅。事實上,自俄羅斯銀行遭歐美制裁後,當地金融體系面臨崩盤危機,民眾急忙提取存款,將資金泊入貴金屬,導致俄國境內銀行出現擠兌現象,俄羅斯聯邦儲蓄銀行(Sberbank)早前表示,俄羅斯投資者對黃金和鈀金的需求明顯急增。

俄央行黃金儲備達2300

除俄國原油因制裁而出口受阻外,西方國家亦對俄國的黃金實施制裁。倫敦作為全球的黃金交易中心,每年貴金屬的交易額超過萬億美元,於今月初宣布禁止俄羅斯新生產的金條進入倫敦市場。另外,美國財政部於上周簽署一項行政命令,禁止與俄羅斯進行黃金交易,並表明七大工業國(G7)及歐盟成員國會繼續打擊俄央行動用其外匯儲備。

俄羅斯自2014年吞併克里米亞後一直囤積黃金,目前持有的黃金儲備大約2300噸,總價值接近1400億美元。隨著全球兩大金融市場先後禁止俄國的黃金交易,即使俄羅斯仍可以在有限的途徑向盟友拋售黃金,例如上海黃金市場及未參與制裁的央行,但由於市場規模及流通量遠不及英美國家,出售的數量恐相當有限。加上,為免觸及西方國家的神經,其盟友或會避免與俄羅斯進行黃金交易,因此俄央行大規模拋售黃金的可能性相當低。

總括而言,因俄烏戰事所引發的滯漲風險未有明顯降溫跡象下,俄羅斯國內的黃金需求持續強勁,俄央行又不太可能在市場上將黃金儲備套現,以上因素均能支持金價表現,預期金市及相關ETF仍會繼續成為資金的避險對象。

 

本文提供之意見純屬盛寶資產管理香港有限公司之觀點,會因市場及其他情況而改變。以上資料並不構成任何投資建議,亦不應視作投資決策之依據。所有資料是搜集自被認為是可靠的來源,但惠理不保證資料的準確性。本文包含之部分陳述可能被視為前瞻性陳述,此等陳述不保證任何將來表現,實際情況或發展可能與該等陳述有重大落差。刊發人:盛寶資產管理香港有限公司

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