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Value Gold ETF

  • Value Gold ETF (the “Fund”) is a fund listed on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited (“SEHK”), which aims to provide investment results that closely correspond to the performance of the London Bullion Market Association Gold Price.
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  • 加息因素大致消化,金價表現可期 (Chinese only)

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加息因素大致消化,金價表現可期 (Chinese only)

大宗商品價格居高不下,帶動物價持續升溫,控制通脹已成為環球央行的當務之急,隨著歐洲逐步加大對俄羅斯的制裁,原油市場繼續陷入供不應求,黃金仍屬抗通脹之選。市場過去已反映不少美國聯儲局加息因素,主席鮑威爾早前更放鴿,年內不考慮加息0.75厘,鑑於息率增幅遠追不上通脹水平,黃金仍有一定的投資價值。

踏入2022年以來,全球通脹、中國疫情反覆,環球股市波動,以及對烏克蘭局勢的擔憂加劇投資者的不安情緒,推動資金流入黃金避險。據世界黃金協會於上月底發布的《全球黃金需求趨勢報告》顯示,今年首三個月黃金總需求量達1234噸,為2018年第四季度以來的最高季度水平。黃金ETF的總持倉量於首季度則增長269噸,是自2020年第三季度以來的最高水平, 2021年全年則淨流出174噸。季內,全球央行官方黃金儲備上升84噸,淨買入量較上季高出逾倍。

金價由高位回調逾一成一

新冠疫情導致全球供應鏈持續陷入混亂,俄烏戰火更進一步加劇供應鏈瓶頸,商品價格大幅飆升。歐盟日前宣布第六輪制裁俄羅斯措施,所有來自俄國的石油產品將被實施禁運,原油市場短缺情況只會更嚴重,油價短期內恐易升難跌。在通脹陰霾籠罩下,美國於今年三月正式進入加息周期,聯儲局在上周的議息會議宣布加息0.5厘,並在六月份開始縮表,但符合市場預期。傳統上,緊縮環境不利金價表現,紐約期金自今年三月初高見2078美元後反覆回落,上周初曾低見1849美元,回調幅度達11%,應已大致反映加息因素。

然而,美國首季經濟增長按年意外收縮1.4%,反映美國經濟正出現潛在衰退的訊號,意味聯儲局在貨幣政策上陷入進退維谷的局面,預期局方不會在加息上過於激進。事實上,鮑威爾於上周發表鴿派言論,目前沒有積極考慮一次過加息0.75厘。據利率期貨數據顯示,市場預期今年六月份加息0.75厘的機率已非常低。眼下現時息口仍遠低於通脹水平,黃金仍能扮演抗通脹的角色。

值得留意的是,俄烏戰爭爆發後,俄羅斯的外匯儲備遭到西方國家凍結。一系列的制裁令部分國家認為,美元的全球主導地位或會逐漸被削弱,持有美元的風險有所上升,增加黃金儲備以減少對美元及西方經濟的依賴或會是其他央行的重要選項,長遠而言屬利好金價的主要因素。另外,俄烏兩國戰火仍未有平息跡象,俄羅斯近日更加大對烏克蘭基礎設施的打擊力度,地緣政治風險仍然高漲,料黃金將繼續發揮避險功能。

資料來源:

  1. 1.      美國聯儲局議息聲明,2022年5月5日
  2. 2.      世界黃金協會,2022年4月28日
  3. 3.      Investing.com,2022年5月6日
  4. 4.      美國商務部經濟分析局,2022年4月28日
  5. 5.      Bloomberg,2022年5月6日

 

本文提供之意見純屬盛寶資產管理香港有限公司之觀點,會因市場及其他情況而改變。以上資料並不構成任何投資建議,亦不應視作投資決策之依據。所有資料是搜集自被認為是可靠的來源,但惠理不保證資料的準確性。本文包含之部分陳述可能被視為前瞻性陳述,此等陳述不保證任何將來表現,實際情況或發展可能與該等陳述有重大落差。刊發人:盛寶資產管理香港有限公司

 

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