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Value Gold ETF

  • Value Gold ETF (the “Fund”) is a fund listed on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited (“SEHK”), which aims to provide investment results that closely correspond to the performance of the London Bullion Market Association Gold Price.
  • The Fund only invests in bullion and may experience greater volatility due to single economic, market or political occurrences.
  • The Fund has adopted a multi counter and units are traded in HKD, RMB and USD on SEHK. The nature of the multi-counter model may make investment in the units riskier than in single counter units or shares of an SEHK listed issuer. Investors without RMB or USD accounts may buy and sell HKD traded units only.
  • RMB is not a freely convertible currency and is subject to foreign exchange control policies, as well as repatriation restrictions imposed by the PRC government. Investors whose base currencies of investments are not in RMB should take into account the potential risk of loss arising from fluctuations in value between such currencies and the RMB.
  • The Fund does not insure its bullion and the Fund and unitholders could suffer a loss if the bullion held by the custodian is lost or damaged.
  • As the Fund is not actively managed, the Manager will not adopt a temporary defensive position against any market downturn. Investors may lose part or all of their investment.
  • Trading prices of units on the SEHK are subject to market forces and the units may trade at a substantial premium/discount to the net asset value of the Fund.
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Email: operations@valueETF.com.hk

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  • 利淡因素發酵,黃金繼續發揮避險作用 (Chinese only)

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利淡因素發酵,黃金繼續發揮避險作用 (Chinese only)

聯儲局主席鮑威爾上周在議息會議上「放鷹」,表明可能最快在3月加息,更不排除在年內的每次會議上宣布加息,鷹派言論觸發股金匯劇烈波動,金價更再次失守1800美元關。不過,地緣政治持續動盪,通脹未能受控,大量資金湧入黃金ETF,反映市場避險情緒仍未降溫。

能源價格急升為去年推動通脹的主因,加上產油國各懷鬼胎,只願意有限度的增加產量,令原油市場持續供不應求,布蘭特期油去年累漲50.1%;紐約期油則累升55%。自2022年開局以來,油價表現繼續強勢,兩者於一月份抽高超過一成。隨著俄烏衝突一觸即發,阿聯酋遭胡塞武裝襲擊,令原油供給憂慮加劇。縱使美國近期原油及汽油庫存增加,一度紓緩市場對供應的擔憂,但成品油需求卻升至接近紀錄高位,油價繼續在高位徘徊。

上世紀中東戰爭觸發金價升浪

事實上,據過往的高通脹情況可見,金價走勢往往跑贏其他資產價格,若同時牽涉到地緣政治緊張,黃金表現更是更勝一籌。以1973年10月為例,當年爆發的中東戰爭觸發了全球第一次石油危機,美國通脹由1972年6月的2.7%,大幅飆升至1974年12月的12.3%;當時金價由64.1美元急升至192.25美元,升幅達200%。

1976年至1980年間,發生蘇聯入侵阿富汗,伊朗挾持美國大使館人質等國際重大事件,再度引發石油供給的憂慮,當時通脹由4.9%大幅飆升至1980年3月的14.8%。期間金價在122.63美元急升至1980年1月的850美元,幅度高達593%,並創下當時的歷史新高。

美股及虛擬貨幣遭資金拋售

不過,於90年初及2003年兩次爆發的波斯灣戰爭中,金價卻要倒跌,主要是由於市場憧憬美國能以壓倒性的軍事優勢盡快結束戰爭,而金價早於戰火彌漫之前已反映。然而,近年西方國家與中俄的關係持續惡化,市場認為雙方關係於短期內不會有任何改善。加上中東及非洲的激進組織死灰復燃,意味地緣政治風險只會不斷升溫。

加息潮即將來臨帶來債息上揚,美股繼續迎來估值修正。另一方面,全球多國計劃加大對虛擬貨幣市場的監管,風險資產屢成為資金拋售對象。在通脹持續飆升及股市波動加劇的情況下,全球最大的黃金ETF最近錄得上市以來的最大淨流入,而ETF的持倉變化正反映投資者的避險情緒正日益高漲,相信資金仍將繼續流入金市及黃金ETF,支持金價表現向好。

 

本文提供之意見純屬盛寶資產管理香港有限公司之觀點,會因市場及其他情況而改變。以上資料並不構成任何投資建議,亦不應視作投資決策之依據。所有資料是搜集自被認為是可靠的來源,但惠理不保證資料的準確性。本文包含之部分陳述可能被視為前瞻性陳述,此等陳述不保證任何將來表現,實際情況或發展可能與該等陳述有重大落差。刊發人:盛寶資產管理香港有限公司

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