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Value Gold ETF

  • Value Gold ETF (the “Fund”) is a fund listed on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited (“SEHK”), which aims to provide investment results that closely correspond to the performance of the London Bullion Market Association Gold Price.
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  • 利好因素支撐 金價醞釀突破 (Chinese only)

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利好因素支撐 金價醞釀突破 (Chinese only)

俄烏局勢急速惡化,俄羅斯總統普京宣布,承認烏克蘭東部兩個分離主義地區頓涅茨克和盧甘斯克為「獨立國家」,並下令俄軍對烏克蘭東部頓巴斯地區執行「維和任務」,烏克蘭多地遭受攻擊。與此同時,歐美先後宣布一連串制裁俄羅斯的措施,俄羅斯在2月24日當地時間清晨更向烏克蘭發動全面入侵。受避險情緒氣氛帶動,金價以致一眾商品價格均保持強勢。

踏入 2022 年,地緣政治風險不斷升溫,據世界黃金協會早前公布的數據顯示,1月份全球黃金ETF流入量為46噸(約27億美元),為2021年5月以來最高水平1。另外,全球最大的黃金ETF – SPDR Gold shares,其持倉量自去年12月觸及20個月新低後,已上升超過50噸2。路透社上周報導,根據Refinitiv Lipper,截至今年2月23日,流入全球黃金及其他貴金屬ETF的金額約47億美元,去年則流出78億美元3

債價上升利好金價表現

回顧過去戰爭行情,因為金價已累積一定升幅,故戰爭一旦爆發,金價或出現先升後調整。2月24日金價瞬間衝破1,900美元大關,最高升至1,974美元,其後俄羅斯正式向烏克蘭開戰,金價一度出現調整、徘徊在1,900美元水平。礙於目前美國通脹已處於半失控狀態,歐洲通脹又同時持續升溫,估計金價也不會出現大幅度的調整,交易員及投資者很大機會趁金價回調時大舉趁低吸納,作長線持有。

而且俄烏全面進入作戰狀態,西歐相當依賴俄羅斯出口的天然氣及石油,加上俄羅斯為全球小麥出口大國,俄烏衝突恐會令能源、基本金屬及農產品供應出現中斷,帶動相關價格全面上升,勢必令通脹進一步惡化;美國一月份消費物價指數(CPI)為7.5%,創下40年新高4。如無意外,聯儲局在3月份開展加息週期,但美匯指數表現乏力,估計是有資金湧入美國債券市場避險,在美債價格攀升下,美國10年期債息持續由高位回落,從而令美匯受壓繼而有利金價上升,預料短期資金繼續湧入債市的局面不會改變。因此,債息受壓,將會為金價提供強而有力的利好因素。

總括而言,東歐武裝衝突不斷升級,全球供應鏈恐受到衝擊,通脹有極大機會持續升溫,環球股市持續出現不同程度的調整,短期繼續回吐應無可避免,預期資金會繼續流入避險資產包括黃金ETF在內,令避險資產及金價進一步挑戰高位。

資料來源:

  1. 世界黃金協會報告,2022年1月28日
  2. 彭博新聞報導,2022年2月23日
  3. 路透社新聞報導,2022年2月24日
  4. 美國勞工及統計局,2022年2月10日

免責聲明:本文提供之觀點純屬惠理基金管理香港有限公司(「惠理」)觀點,會因市場及其他情況而改變。以上資料並不構成任何投資建議,亦不可視作倚賴之依據。所有數據是於呈示之日搜集自被認為是可靠的數據源,但惠理不保證數據的準確性。本文包含之部分陳述可能被視為前瞻性陳述,此前瞻性陳述不保證任何將來表現,實際情況或發展可能與該等前瞻性陳述有重大落差。本文件並未經香港證券及期貨事務監察委員會審閱。刊發人:惠理基金管理香港有限公司。

 

本文提供之意見純屬盛寶資產管理香港有限公司之觀點,會因市場及其他情況而改變。以上資料並不構成任何投資建議,亦不應視作投資決策之依據。所有資料是搜集自被認為是可靠的來源,但惠理不保證資料的準確性。本文包含之部分陳述可能被視為前瞻性陳述,此等陳述不保證任何將來表現,實際情況或發展可能與該等陳述有重大落差。刊發人:盛寶資產管理香港有限公司

 

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