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Value Gold ETF

  • Value Gold ETF (the “Fund”) is a fund listed on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited (“SEHK”), which aims to provide investment results that closely correspond to the performance of the London Bullion Market Association Gold Price.
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  • 債息急升衝擊輕微,黃金繼續發揮避險作用 (Chinese only)

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債息急升衝擊輕微,黃金繼續發揮避險作用 (Chinese only)

美國聯儲局下周將舉行今年首次議息會議,隨著通脹持續高企,聯儲局取向亦更鷹派,市場對加息的預期再次升溫,刺激美國債息急升。然而,債息與金價並非必然存負相關性,在避險情緒升溫下,加上金價已大致消化加息因素,資金持續泊入黃金及相關ETF產品,金價有望能維持升勢。

黃金與債息並不一定呈相反方向

美國通脹水平持續高企,上月消費物價指數(CPI)按年飆升7%創40年新高。雖然高通脹或正為經濟帶來衰退壓力,但聯儲局主席鮑威爾早前指出,高通脹為就業市場帶來威脅,更表示將在3月底結束買債,加息次數可能較目前計劃為多。美國加息如箭在弦,美十年債債息更衝高至1.89厘,創近兩年新高,但並沒有對金價造成太大影響,據歷史數據顯示,黃金與債息的走勢並非必然呈相反方向。

在2003年6月至2007年6月的債息上升周期,債息由3.1厘上升至5.3厘,同期金價亦由每安士356美元升至647美元,升幅逾80%。無獨有偶,自2020年3月以來的過去一年,美國10年期國債息率由0.67厘升至近期最高1.74厘,金價亦上升了8.3%。

另外,回顧自1986年以來,聯儲局的五次加息週期當中,金價表現並未因受到拖累,反而錄得正回報,尤其是上一次的加息週期及縮表期間,即2017年11月至2019年8月,金價在這段期間仍錄得約20%的升幅。正如筆者在前文所說,因金融市場已經完全消化聯儲局將會收緊貨幣政策的訊息,所以一旦聯儲局落實執行相關政策時,金價反而開始回升。

中美博弈未歇地緣政治將更複雜

地緣政治日趨緊張亦有望帶動資金流入黃金避險,如哈薩克政府讓俄羅斯軍隊入境平亂;俄羅斯早前與北約就烏克蘭問題進行的多次磋商無果而終,前者更暗示會在古巴及委內瑞拉駐軍,令美俄緊張關係持續加劇。亞洲方面,北韓近期更多次進行高超音速導彈試射,美國其後立即宣布,制裁多名北韓及俄羅斯公民,令兩韓局勢再起波瀾。中美博弈仍然是國際局勢下的聚焦點,而目前沒有任何跡象兩國關係會有所緩和,意味今年的地緣政局會較去年更加複雜。

虛幣市場疲弱刺激資金回流金市

據世界黃金協會統計顯示,過去十年全球央行合共增持黃金儲備超過4500噸,數量達到3.6萬噸,黃金總儲備量增加至1990年以來最高水平。央行增加黃金儲備,一方面是抗通脹,第二方面則是因應美元強勢下,令這些央行的本國貨幣貶值,從而轉為增加黃金儲備。另外,比特幣在去年11月創下69020美元的歷史高位後持續下跌,虛擬貨幣市場氣氛疲弱,資金亦明顯回流至黃金及其相關ETF市場。

總括而言,黃金仍可有效對沖通脹失控或加息引發經濟衰退所帶來的影響,在後市仍存在眾多的不穩因素下,黃金亦繼續扮演避險角色,未來金價有望維持升勢。

 

本文提供之意見純屬盛寶資產管理香港有限公司之觀點,會因市場及其他情況而改變。以上資料並不構成任何投資建議,亦不應視作投資決策之依據。所有資料是搜集自被認為是可靠的來源,但惠理不保證資料的準確性。本文包含之部分陳述可能被視為前瞻性陳述,此等陳述不保證任何將來表現,實際情況或發展可能與該等陳述有重大落差。刊發人:盛寶資產管理香港有限公司

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